EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This test report considers migration in the context of Climate Change in Mogotio Constituency, Kenya East Africa. The scope of this report examines local migration trends, but also internal migration trends particularly within low-income areas, which are often more important in this context. The report has the following key conclusions:

Introduction

Climate Changes will affect migration now and in the future, specifically through its influence on a range of economic, social and political drivers which themselves affect migration. However, the range and complexity of the interactions between these drivers means that it will rarely be possible to distinguish individuals for whom environmental factors are the sole driver (‘environmental migrants’). People are as likely to migrate to places of environmental vulnerability as from these places. For example, compared to 2000, there may be between 114 and 192 million additional people living in floodplains in urban areas in Africa and Asia by 2060, in alternative scenarios of the future. This will pose a range of challenges to policy makers.

The impact of Climate Change on migration will increase in the future. In particular, Climate Change may threaten people’s livelihoods, and a traditional response is to migrate. Climate Change will also alter populations’ exposure to natural hazards, and migration is, in many cases, the only response to this. The complex interactions of drivers can lead to different outcomes, which include migration and displacement. In turn, these types of outcomes can pose more ‘operational’ challenges or more ‘geopolitical’ challenges. There are powerful linkages between them. Planned and well-managed migration (which poses operational challenges) can reduce the chance of later humanitarian emergencies and displacement. Climate Change is equally likely to make migration less possible as more probable. This is because migration is expensive and requires forms of capital, yet populations who experience the impacts of Climate Change may see a reduction in the very capital required to enable a move.

FIG 1. - MOGOTIO, BARINGO LAND USE MAP

Consequently, in the decades ahead, millions of people will be unable to move away from locations in which they are extremely vulnerable to Climate Change. To the international community, this ‘trapped’ population is likely to represent just as important a policy concern as those who do migrate. Planned and well-managed migration can be one important solution for this population of concern. Preventing or constraining migration is not a ‘no risk’ option. Doing so will lead to increased impoverishment, displacement and irregular migration in many settings, particularly in low elevation coastal zones, drylands and mountain regions. Conversely, some degree of planned and proactive migration of individuals or groups may ultimately allow households and populations to remain in situ for longer.

Migration and Local Climate Change

Measures that prevent harmful Climate Changes, reduce their impact, and build resilience in communities will diminish the influence of Climate Change on migration but are unlikely to fully prevent it. Migration can represent a ‘transformational’ adaptation to Climate Change, and in many cases will be an extremely effective way to build long-term resilience. International policy should aim to ensure that migration occurs in a way which maximizes benefits to the individual, and both source and destination communities.

In summary, the key message of this report is that migration in the face of local Climate Change may not be just part of the ‘problem’ but can also be part of the solution. In particular, planned and facilitated approaches to human migration can ease people out of situations of vulnerability. Looking at the impact of Climate Changes arising from climate change, as well as land degradation and coastal and marine ecosystems degradation;

Understanding that links between migration and Climate Change are particularly important in three key local ecological regions: drylands, low-elevation coastal zones and mountain regions; recognizing that the impact of Climate Change on future migration is uncertain – different growth, governance and environmental scenarios have diverse implications for migration influenced by Climate Change. This Study Report focuses on dry lands as an Ecological region.

1.0 Introduction; Climate Change and Migration for the next Five Decades

This report challenges the widely held view that future Climate Change, if left unchecked, will lead to the migration of many millions of people, by 2060, away from affected areas. In contrast, it suggests that the situation could be very different in some circumstances, yet potentially just as serious for policy makers and individuals alike. In particular, subsequent chapters, looking to 2030 and 2060, show that: Migration will take people towards areas of environmental risk (notably low-lying towns) as much as away from them. Large populations who do not migrate, yet are situated in areas under threat, will be at risk of becoming ‘trapped’, where they will be more vulnerable to environmental shocks and impoverishment. They are likely to represent an equal if not bigger challenge to policy makers as those who migrate. In some circumstances migration might constitute a strategic transformational adaptation, increasing individual and community long-term resilience to Climate Change.

Recognizing that the factors driving migration go far beyond the environment, and that the consequences go far beyond the movement of people, this report argues that policy makers need to take a broad and expansive perspective. Diverse areas of policy intervention, for example relating to sustainable urbanization, climate change adaptation, conflict resolution and humanitarian assistance, will all be crucial to addressing the future challenges posed by Climate Change and migration.

This report considers how changing environmental factors could combine with other important drivers of change to influence and interact with patterns of local human migration over the next five decades. The findings have implications for issues that are critical for policy makers, now and in the future, including human vulnerability, adaptation to climate change, economic development, conflict, and the location and quality of human settlement. Importantly, the report recognizes that in the context of Climate Change, migration can lead to complex mixes of benefits as well as costs, both for the areas and regions involved and for migrants.

A growing, urbanizing local population over the next 50 years will create demand for more food, energy and water. Changes to our climate may cause degradation of agricultural land, desertification and increased levels of water and food scarcity. For some, this may threaten to create a ‘perfect storm’ of local events. Yet, until now, the connections between economics, demography, environment and migration have been far from certain, still less the consequences for public policy; consequently previous analyses of ‘environmental migrants’ have been variously described as anything from ‘alarmist’6 to ‘conservative’7.

This report has therefore has taken a local perspective to shed light on these connections and their implications for: The drivers of migration, and how local Climate Change might directly and indirectly influence the pattern and volume of human migration; the consequences of migration, with a particular focus on Mogotio constituency, Baringo county in Kenya.

1.1. Why the study is important

1.1.1. Human roles in Environmental and other Climate Changes

Over the past two decades public attention worldwide has focused to an unprecedented degree on the relationship between Climate Change and human action as a key area of public policy. There is widespread acceptance that climate change is occurring, primarily as a result of human activity, and that it poses significant challenges to economies and societies across the globe. Almost all areas in the world are engaged in negotiations on how to mitigate and adapt to climate change, as parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), with some 1,380 international organizations and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) registered as observer organizations.

In addition to climate change, there are a number of other ways in which human activity is affecting local environments, with important consequences for people’s well-being. For example, it is clear that a significant amount of land, water and ecosystem services is being converted to new uses, to the benefit of some, but with significant consequences for sustainability over the medium to long term.

1.1.2. Migration and Climate Change: Before and Today

Specific interest in the effects of Climate Change on migration can generally be traced back to the 1970s and 1980s, when influential reports by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World watch Institute first discussed the term ‘environmental refugees’. Two areas of concern were identified within a literature that has since broadened to encompass ‘environmental migration’ more generally.

The first has its origin in environmental issues, and is associated primarily with work of environmental scientists like Norman Myers. This strand of work has argued that the world faces a major challenge in dealing with millions of additional migrants or refugees, if no action is taken to address or mitigate Climate Change. A related issue, especially amongst some NGOs, concerns the perceived need to develop new legal categories to ensure the ‘protection’ of these migrants or refugees who would likely fall outside existing legal provisions.